My Official 2023 Virginia Tech Football Season Preview
Virginia Tech kicks off the 2023 season this Saturday night, meaning it's time to examine the Hokies' schedule and see where the wins and losses are.
I’d argue that football coaches really show you what they’re made of in Year Two.
In today’s era of college football, a coach has the ability to completely remake his roster in two offseasons with a mix of freshmen and incoming transfers. He’s also had another offseason conditioning program and spring practice schedule to build his desired culture. He must take full ownership of the program in Year Two because his fingerprints are now all over everything.
That’s where Brent Pry finds himself. He’s now had two offseasons to fix the mess he inherited and while that may not be enough to solve all the problems, it is enough to show marked progress. And that progress must come on the field in the form of wins.
So how much progress can we expect to see from Brent Pry and Virginia Tech in 2023? Here’s how I see the season shaking out.
Old Dominion (Sept. 2)
Virginia Tech fans may not like the quarterback situation in Blacksburg, but I can assure you it’s much better than what Ricky Rahne is working with in Norfolk. The Monarchs’ leading options to run the offense were a former FCS backup (Grant Wilson), a former Division II starter (Lendon Redwine) and a true freshman (Colton Joseph). Wilson was tabbed as the starter last week.
It’s not much better anywhere else. Old Dominion’s top receiver from 2022 will line up against them in this game, and last year’s star tight end Zack Kuntz is working on a career with the New York Jets. The Monarchs lost far too many starters from last year to expect to pick up where they left off, which was the three-win mark.
Add in that this game isn’t being played in the quicksand trap that is SB Ballard Stadium, and Old Dominion has little chance of keeping this competitive. The Hokies should win comfortably in what could be a fun way to start the season.
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech (1-0)
Purdue (Sept. 9)
The Boilermakers are starting over in 2023. Jeff Brohm is coaching his alma mater (Louisville) after leading Purdue to a winning record in the Big Ten over six seasons. Two-year starter Aidan O’Connell is gone at quarterback, but Texas transfer Hudson Card is in town to fill the starting role.
Card has some returning weapons on offense, most notably two senior receivers and running back Devin Mockobee, who totaled 1,242 yards from scrimmage last year. Purdue also returns three starters on the offensive line, offering some legitimate continuity for Card to acclimate himself to.
Walters’ defense is transitioning to a 3-4 scheme, but several contributors from last year’s team return. Purdue’s opening contest vs. Fresno State will tell us a lot about what Walters is working with in Year One. For what it’s worth, the preseason Big Ten media poll places Purdue sixth in the Big Ten West, just ahead of Northwestern.
Tech should hang tough with Purdue, but the Hokies have a real issue beating Power 5 teams at home in recent years.
Predicted Winner: Purdue (1-1)
at Rutgers (Sept. 16)
Speaking of preseason media polls, Rutgers was picked sixth in the Big Ten East. Greg Schiano’s return to Rutgers hasn’t exactly gone as some hoped — the former NFL coach has just six conference wins in three seasons since coming home to Piscataway.
Rutgers is relying on an inaccurate quarterback (Gavin Wimsatt), a brand-new receiving corps and a running back returning from injury to put up points. On the other side, several starters from last season’s defense are coming back after leading a top-40 defense in 2022.
Whoever gets the better quarterback play should win this game. Wimsatt completed just 44.8 percent of his passes last year and threw seven interceptions to only five touchdowns. Either Grant Wells or backup Kyron Drones should be better than that.
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech (2-1)
at Marshall (Sept. 23)
Charles Huff built some serious momentum in 2022, winning nine games and going 5-3 in Marshall’s first Sun Belt season. The Thundering Herd sported a stout defense that led the way to five consecutive wins to finish the year.
Both of these teams will enter 2023 relying on their defense to keep things close. Former Virginia Tech-target Khalan Laborn is gone from Marshall’s backfield, raising serious questions on how the Thundering Herd will score.
Given Marshall’s schedule and proximity to Blacksburg, their game against the Hokies might have the most juice of any Marshall game this season. The defense returns enough production to sustain some of their 2022 success and they should make it hard on anyone to score.
Predicted Winner: Marshall (2-2)
Pittsburgh (Sept. 30)
Phil Jurkovec is on his third program in five seasons, which, if anything, solidifies how inconsistent he’s been. Fortunately for Jurkovec, Pittsburgh returns key contributors from last season at running back, receiver and tight end. He’s also reuniting with offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti, who coached Jurkovec for his first two seasons at Boston College.
The Panthers only return five starters on defense from a year ago, but that includes two senior linebackers (Bangally Kamara and Shayne Simon) and a secondary with two fifth-year cornerbacks (MJ Devonshire and Marquis Williams).
Like many of Virginia Tech’s matchups, this one may come down which quarterback plays the best. The Hokies will need their re-made receiving corps to win battles against the Panthers’ experienced secondary.
Predicted Winner: Pittsburgh (2-3)
at Florida State (Oct. 7)
The Seminoles should be Virginia Tech’s toughest opponent of the season. Florida State is one of the favorites to win the ACC as the Jordan Travis-Johnny Wilson connection returns for another year.
Florida State shouldn’t have any issues running the ball either. Running backs Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili combined for 1,859 yards from scrimmage in 2022 and they’re both suiting up again this fall.. The ‘Noles also added three FBS transfers to fill two vacancies on the offensive line.
They also raided the transfer portal to add All-ACC corner Fentrell Cyprus, bolstering a defense that returns All-ACC defensive end Jared Verse and ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Payton.
Florida State is as good as anyone in the conference. Virginia Tech is not, making this one a no-brainer.
Predicted Winner: Florida State (2-4)
Wake Forest (Oct. 14)
It’s a shame that Sam Hartman won’t finish his career in Winston-Salem. As Hartman begins his South Bend finale, Dave Clawson is turning to Mitch Griffis to take the reins.
Griffis has limited experience through three seasons, but he did throw five touchdowns to just one interception in 2022. Wake returns Jahmal Banks, Taylor Morin and Donavan Green at receiver, and that trio caught 24 touchdown passes last season.
Wake’s biggest concern again comes on defense, where Caelen Carson is the only cornerback on the roster with more than a single start at the college level.
Expect Virginia Tech’s defense to be challenged by a potent offense. Wake Forest’s offense will likely be the best unit on the field that day.
Predicted Winner: Wake Forest (2-5)
(Editor’s Note: Wake Forest’s Donavan Greene is out three-to-five months with a non-contact knee injury)
Syracuse (Oct. 26)
Sean Tucker quite literally carried the Orange, rushing for 3,182 yards and 27 touchdowns over his three seasons.
The problem is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now, meaning Dino Babers and quarterback Garrett Schrader have their hands full when it comes to replacing that production. Not only is Tucker gone, but so are three starters on the offensive line.
Things aren’t much better on the defensive side, with four starters either off to the NFL or to other schools via the transfer portal. That includes former Virginia Tech singee Ja’Had Carter, who now plays for Ohio State.
Syracuse is likely taking a step back in 2023. They don’t recruit well, so there isn’t a solidified pipeline of talent to backfill these vacancies. Schrader must also adapt to a new offensive coordinator, though Jason Beck did learn directly under Robert Anae.
Virginia Tech should find some points against this defense and be able to contain Schrader on the other side of the ball.
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech (3-5)
at Louisville (Nov. 4)
The aforementioned Jeff Brohm takes over for Scott Satterfield, who parlayed a lackluster stint in Louisville to a brand new contract with Cincinnati. Funny how that works sometimes.
Brohm has tapped Jack Plummer as his starting quarterback, a player that Brohm coached for four years at Purdue. Plummer transferred to California for last season, throwing for 3,119 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Plummer has three key weapons returning to the Cardinals — running backs Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner, as well as receiver Ahmari Huggins-Bruce, a trio that combined for 1,655 yards from scrimmage in 2022. Louisville also added Jamari Thrash in the transfer portal, a Georgia State standout from last year.
Combine the offensive track record with enough returning defensive production, and Louisville could be one of the better teams in the ACC in Brohm’s first year. I don’t think they challenge Florida State or Clemson, but they’ll win a lot of games in 2023.
Predicted Winner: Louisville (3-6)
at Boston College (Nov. 11)
My guess is that Virginia Tech enters this game needing three-straight wins to qualify for a bowl game. And I’ll say it now — I think they get the first of those three with a win over the Eagles.
Jeff Hafley hasn’t had the impact I expected he would in Chestnut Hill. The offensive line was in shambles last season and Boston College is relying on a band of transfers to improve a leaky defense.
Emmett Morehead filled in adequately last year, completing almost 60 percent of his passes and throwing for 10 touchdowns. His best weapon this season will likely be Central Florida transfer Ryan O’Keefe, who had 947 yards from scrimmage in 2022.
The atmosphere for this game will likely be non-existent — the Eagles’ season may be effectively over in November and their fans aren’t the type to show up often anyway. Virginia Tech will need to stay focused if they’re to win a game that they’ll likely be favored in.
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech (4-6)
NC State (Nov. 18)
I’m highly interested in whether or not Brennan Armstrong can resurrect his career in Raleigh.
After a stellar 2021, Armstrong struggled in Tony Elliott’s offense. Armstrong posted career lows in completion percentage and yards per pass attempt while throwing a career-high 12 interceptions. To say last season was a mess would be an understatement.
Armstrong joins the Wolfpack for 2023, reuniting with Robert Anae, who helped Armstrong find so much success at Virginia. There’s not much on offense for Armstrong to work with, but he can improvise enough to get guys the ball.
NC State’s defense has been solid for years and that shouldn’t change in 2023. The Wolfpack return six starters from 2022, including All-ACC corner Aydan White and sixth-year linebacker Payton Wilson.
The Wolfpack are good enough to challenge Florida State and Clemson, but they likely fall just short of those two teams. However, they’re a couple tiers ahead of the Hokies and should earn this road win.
Predicted Winner: NC State (4-7)
at Virginia (Nov. 25)
Brent Pry didn’t hesitate to confirm that Virginia Tech is still the flagship football program in the Commonwealth, even though both Pry and Elliott won just three games in 2022.
The two coaches will square off for the first time this fall and by this point in the season, one or both will likely face some serious questions regarding the progress of their respective rebuilds.
The ‘Hoos are tapping Monmouth-transfer Tony Muskett at quarterback after freshman Anthony Colandrea is reportedly pushed Muskett in training camp. Whoever is taking the snaps has little returning production to work with — Virginia’s top four receivers from 2022 are gone and Northwestern-transfer Malik Washington is the lone incoming receiver from the portal.
On defense, Virginia must replace corner Fentrell Cypress, who bolted for Tallahassee. Six of Virginia’s nine returning starters are on defense, but the departing Cypress and linebacker Nick Jackson leave large holes on that side of the ball.
At risk of overstating it, this is a must-win for Brent Pry and his staff. Pry has successfully built momentum all offseason long and even if Virginia Tech misses a bowl game in 2023, earning a win over their in-state rival can cement potential progress moving into Pry’s third year.
As suspect as Pry’s team looked last season, Elliott and his staff looked far more incompetent. The Hokies did a better job adding talent through the portal and have the better roster on paper.
Predicted Winner: Virginia Tech (5-7)
Final Thoughts
Brent Pry really needs to cross the six-win threshold in 2023 to build on his offseason progress. But until we see improved offensive output, it’s hard to bank on the Hokies scoring enough points to get to six wins.
The schedule isn’t brutally difficult this season, but it’s no cakewalk either. Trips to Marshall, Florida State and Louisville offer significant road blocks, while games against Purdue, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and NC State make it difficult to stack wins at home.
Finishing at 5-7 will leave a bitter taste in the mouths of some, but a two-win improvement from last season isn’t entirely bad. If the Hokies keep most of their games close and play up to the competition, then it’s fair to say that this thing is moving in the right direction.
Anything less than five wins spells trouble for Pry’s future, as his ability to sell the program will take a serious hit with another poor season under his belt.